Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen

Stein Haugen and Jan Erik Vinnem

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, vol. 137, issue C, 1-5

Abstract: Black swans have been discussed lately. Some recent contributions to the understanding of black swans have been provided by Aven [1] and Aven and Krohn [3]. It is important to be aware of events which may come as complete surprise, which creates uncertainty in the risk assessment. This is consistent with the proposed revision of the definition of risk by Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) [Norway]. But we should at the same time also try to look beyond this and see how we can use this concept to avoid serious accidents or at least reduce the consequences should accidents occur. In this paper we proposed to restrict the black swan concept to unknown unknowns. Cases illustrate how the wider definition may lead to misleading and unfortunate effects that will not lead to good risk management practices. The wider definitions proposed by Aven & Krohn are proposed to be counterproductive if seen in a risk management context.

Keywords: Black swan; Uncertainty; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:137:y:2015:i:c:p:1-5

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.12.009

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