Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

Chiachío, Juan, Chiachío, Manuel, Shankar Sankararaman, Abhinav Saxena and Kai Goebel

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, vol. 142, issue C, 134-147

Abstract: This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation. Degradation phenomena such as stiffness reduction and increase in matrix micro-cracks density are sequentially estimated through a Bayesian filtering framework that incorporates information from both multi-scale damage models and damage measurements, that are sequentially collected along the process. A set of damage states are further propagated forward in time by simulating the damage progression using the models in the absence of new damage measurements to estimate the time-dependent reliability of the composite material. As a key contribution, the estimation of the remaining useful life is obtained as a probability from the prediction of the time-dependent reliability, whose validity is formally proven using the axioms of Probability Logic. A case study is presented using multi-scale fatigue damage data from a cross-ply carbon-epoxy laminate.

Keywords: Model-based prognostics; Time-dependent reliability; Fatigue; Composites (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:134-147

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.018

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