Ignoring scenarios in risk assessments: Understanding the issue and improving current practice

Terje Aven

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, vol. 145, issue C, 215-220

Abstract: In risk assessment we are typically faced with a huge number of potential scenarios and events, and in practise some of these are ignored, either because they are not identified or because of judged low probability. However, a scenario or an event may occur despite being extremely unlikely. Considering a large population of such scenarios and events, the occurrence probability is not necessarily negligible. In this paper we take a closer look at this challenge, the main aim being to clarify the issue and provide some recommendation on how to best handle it in practise. A main conclusion is that the risk assessment should be placed in a sufficiently broad framework, ensuring that the outcome and main event spaces are complete, and sufficient focus is placed on the hypotheses and assumptions supporting the detailed scenarios that are identified.

Keywords: Risk assessment; Scenarios; Events; Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:215-220

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.012

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