Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

Gintautas Dundulis, ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga, Remigijus Janulionis, UÅ¡puras, Eugenijus, Sigitas RimkeviÄ ius and Mohamed Eid

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, vol. 156, issue C, 195-202

Abstract: In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well.

Keywords: Fracture mechanic analysis; Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis; Finite element method; Bayesian method; Failure probability; Gas pipeline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:195-202

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.003

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