A Bayesian analysis of component life expectancy and its implications on the inspection schedule

Paolo Mason

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017, vol. 161, issue C, 87-94

Abstract: A model of crack initiation and residual component life is fitted to the inspection history, inclusive of two in-service failures, of a set of gas circulator impellers at two UK power stations. The model is then used to estimate the probability of future in-service failure of each item in scenarios in which the next opportunity for inspection (i.e. detection of a developing crack) is exploited or forgone.

Keywords: Degradation modelling; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Approximate Bayesian Computation; Risk-informed decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:87-94

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.006

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