Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function

Liangyan Tao, Desheng Wu, Sifeng Liu and James H. Lambert

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017, vol. 167, issue C, 464-473

Abstract: Schedule risk analysis plays a key role in new product development. A typical project-schedule model using the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) falls short in many practical situations. Instead, a graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) has been recommended for its ability to address probability branches and loops. This paper introduces a GERT model based on a characteristic function and designs its numerical solution. First, an inversion formula is applied to derive the probability distribution of the completion time of a product development. Second, to address the implications of a due date, a novel measure of schedule risk is introduced to give a view of both loss and probability. Third, an elasticity analysis is used to identify the network parameters that facilitate the control of schedule risk. A case study of new product development in a high-technology enterprise is presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. The approach will be useful in schedule risk analysis across several problem domains including engineering, environment, management, economic development, etc.

Keywords: Schedule risk; Elasticity analysis; Characteristic function; Project management; Planning; Numerical methods; Graphical user interface (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:464-473

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.06.010

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