Towards a probabilistic model for estimation of grounding accidents in fluctuating backwater zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Dan Jiang, Bing Wu, Zhiyou Cheng, Jie Xue and P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 205, issue C

Abstract: The water level fluctuations in the upper reach of dam reservoirs may result in increasing occurrence probabilities of ship grounding accidents, which is especially prominent in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Grounding accidents may not only cause congestion of the traffic but also lead to loss of properties and pollution to the maritime environment. An analytical model incorporating Bayesian Network is proposed to estimate the occurrence likelihood of a ship being grounded in the fluctuating backwater zone. The proposed model comprehensively considers the characteristics of the ship's properties, organizational factors, hydrological conditions and human factors from a systematic perspective. Historical data collected from the Chongqing Maritime Safety Administration, together with incident reports, are used to develop a quantitative model. The developed model in this paper concludes that out of twenty-six factors, the area of the fluctuating backwater zone, the month, and water level are the predominant factors for the occurrence of grounding accidents in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results can be used by maritime stakeholders to take mitigation measures for grounding accident reduction.

Keywords: Grounding accidents; Occurrence likelihood estimation; Bayesian network; Fluctuating backwater zone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:205:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020307390

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107239

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