A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error

Zengkai Wang, Shengkui Zeng, Jianbin Guo and Haiyang Che

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 207, issue C

Abstract: Existing researches on the reliability assessment of phased-mission systems (PMSs) focus mainly on the phase dependencies of the machine state. However, with regard to the man-machine PMS (MMPMS), it also has non-negligible phase dependencies of human cognitive error. For example, the error of omission in previous phase may result in an identical error if the operator experiences a similar working scenario in a subsequent phase. To address the phase dependencies of human cognitive error, a novel method for the reliability assessment of MMPMS is proposed. First, the phase dependencies of human cognitive error are analyzed and categorized into four types based on the framework of situation awareness. A decision tree is then developed to quantify the dependence level. Second, the Bayesian network (BN) is used to construct the system reliability model for each phase from the perspective of mental model. Subsequently, the phase dependencies of machine state and of human cognitive error are mapped to BN to integrate constructed single-phase models as a multi-phase system reliability model. Third, the reliability of MMPMS can be assessed based on the conditional probabilities of all the nodes. Finally, the proposed method is exemplified with a multi-phase reconnaissance mission of an unmanned aerial vehicle.

Keywords: Phased-mission system; Man-machine system; Cognitive error; Bayesian network; Reliability assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020308735
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308735

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107385

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().