A scenario optimization approach to reliability-based and risk-based design: Soft-constrained modulation of failure probability bounds

Roberto Rocchetta and Luis G. Crespo

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 216, issue C

Abstract: Reliability-based design approaches via scenario optimization are driven by data thereby eliminating the need for creating a probabilistic model of the uncertain parameters. A scenario approach not only yields a reliability-based design that is optimal for the existing data, but also a probabilistic certificate of its correctness against future data drawn from the same source. In this article, we seek designs that minimize not only the failure probability but also the risk measured by the expected severity of requirement violations. The resulting risk-based solution is equipped with a probabilistic certificate of correctness that depends on both the amount of data available and the complexity of the design architecture. This certificate is comprised of an upper and lower bound on the probability of exceeding a value-at-risk (quantile) level. A reliability interval can be easily derived by selecting a specific quantile value and it is mathematically guaranteed for any reliability constraints having a convex dependency on the decision variable, and an arbitrary dependency on the uncertain parameters. Furthermore, the proposed approach enables the analyst to mitigate the effect of outliers in the data set and to trade-off the reliability of competing requirements.

Keywords: Reliability-based design optimization; Scenario theory; Reliability bounds; Conditional value-at-risk; Constraints relaxation; Lack of data uncertainty; Convex programs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202100418X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100418x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107900

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().