Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection

Alessandro Tugnoli, Giordano Emrys Scarponi, Giacomo Antonioni and Valerio Cozzani

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 217, issue C

Abstract: Fragment projection from equipment failure has been extensively recognized as a cause of cascading events and of severe domino scenarios. In recent years several mathematical models suitable for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effects and cascading events were developed and validated, but a systematic methodology for quantitative risk assessment caused by fragment projection and impact is still missing. In the present study, a step-by-step approach is proposed for the assessment of domino risk indices due to fragment projection. The approach builds on available sub-models for the quantitative assessment of fragment generation, impact and damage probabilities. Altogether, the proposed model supports a quantification of the risk due to escalation triggered by fragment impact that can be easily automated and integrated in risk assessment studies.

Keywords: Fragment projection; Fragment impact probability; Quantitative risk assessmen; Cascading events; Domino effect; Major accident hazard (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:217:y:2022:i:c:s0951832021005615

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108059

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