Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks

Caroline Morais, Hector Diego Estrada-Lugo, Silvia Tolo, Tiago Jacques, Raphael Moura, Michael Beer and Edoardo Patelli

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 218, issue PA

Abstract: Despite increasing collection efforts of empirical human reliability data, the available databases are still insufficient for understanding the relationships between human errors and their influencing factors. Currently, probabilistic tools such as Bayesian network are used to model data uncertainty requiring the estimation of conditional probability tables from data that is often not available. The most common solution relies on the adoption of assumptions and expert elicitation to fill the gaps. This gives an unjustified sense of confidence on the analysis.

Keywords: Credal network; Missing data; Human reliability analysis (HRA); CREAM; FPSO/FSO; Quantified bow-tie (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:218:y:2022:i:pa:s0951832021005007

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107990

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