A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation

Cunlong Fan, Jakub Montewka and Di Zhang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 226, issue C

Abstract: Maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS) may operate in three predefined operational modes (OM): manual, remote, or autonomous control. Determining the appropriate OM for MASS is important for operators and competent authorities that monitor and regulate maritime traffic in given areas. However, a science-based approach to this respect is currently unavailable. To assist the selection of the proper OM, this study presents a risk-based framework to compare risks in a given situation. To determine the risk level for a given OM, this framework utilizes expected failure modes (FM) related to people, organization, vessel, environment, and technology. FMs and associated accident scenarios (AS) were identified from conventional ship accidents, operating in manual control, in a coastal area in China, based on an extended 24Model. To expand these FMs to other OMs, experts’ knowledge elicitation sessions were carried out. Subsequently, a metric for navigation risk of MASS in given OMs was introduced and estimated for the expected AS, using interval-based risk prioritization numbers to convey inherent uncertainty. Finally, by ranking interval-valued metrics in the three OMs, a risk picture was obtained. The feasibility of the proposed framework for risk comparison was verified using grounding in coastal areas where accident data were collected.

Keywords: Autonomous ship; Navigational risk; Operation mode; Risk comparison; 24Model; RPN; Interval number; Grounding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022003349
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:226:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003349

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108709

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().