Empirical study on human error probability of procedure-extraneous behaviors

Yochan Kim, Sun Yeong Choi, Jinkyun Park and Jaewhan Kim

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 227, issue C

Abstract: To realistically quantify human reliability in socio-technical systems, it is useful to obtain statistical evidence from empirical data. A procedure-extraneous error, which is a type of commission error, can occur when an operator attempts to operate a system or component that is not guided in the relevant procedure. Because these behaviors are rarely found in system environments in which the procedures are strictly followed, they have not been sufficiently studied from a quantitative point of view. This study aims to estimate the occurrence probability of procedure-extraneous behaviors based on data from a full-scope simulator of a nuclear power plant. For this analysis, 107 simulation records of the APR1400 plant and human errors identified by experts in various fields were analyzed by Poisson regression. Using the resulting coefficient estimates from the regression model, the expected recovery probabilities, and the performance time required for human events, the occurrence probability of procedure-extraneous behavior was predicted. Depending on the situation and recoverability, various values of human error probability were derived between 1 and 10−6. Limitations from data scarcity and the implications of the results are discussed.

Keywords: Full-scope simulator; Human error probability; Human reliability analysis; HuREX framework; Poisson regression; Procedure-extraneous behaviors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022003519
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:227:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003519

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108727

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().