Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure

Xu Hong, Zhiqiang Wan and Jianbing Chen

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2023, vol. 237, issue C

Abstract: The tropical cyclone (TC) wind hazard assessment formulates a change-of-random-variable problem, which maps the probability space of controlling parameters to that of the TC-induced wind. This study presents a framework for analyzing the TC wind hazard based on the probability density evolution method (PDEM) integrated with the change of probability measure (COM). It is advantageous in the problem of assessing the TC wind hazards at multiple locations over the traditional approach because a common set of representative deterministic solutions of physical equations can be re-used for all locations rather than solving a separate set of solutions at each location. The proposed method is applied to estimate the wind hazard on the Chinese southeast coastline. The common representative deterministic points are selected by the generalized-F-discrepancy-based method with the probability distributions of controlling parameters at Shantou. Based on the COM, the geographical dependence of probabilistic characteristics is represented by changing the assigned probability. The PDEM is incorporated to evaluate the propagation of randomness from the input-controlling parameters to the TC-induced surface wind. The comparison to the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates the high efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Hazard; Probability density evolution method; Change of probability measure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:237:y:2023:i:c:s095183202300265x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109351

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