A safety dynamic evaluation method for missile mission based on multi-layered safety control structure model

Jiayu. Chen, Boqing Yao, Qinhua Lu, Xuhang Wang, Pingchao Yu and Hongjuan Ge

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 241, issue C

Abstract: The multi-mission environment and complex working conditions of long-term storage put forward strict requirements on the effective risk suppression and accurate safety evaluation of missile equipment. This paper proposes a safety dynamic evaluation method based on a multi-layered safety control structure model to realize accurate safety evaluation for missile missions. Firstly, according to the missile mission profile characteristics, a multi-view architecture is constructed to achieve the accurate description of mission process as well as their relationships and interactions. Secondly, a multi-layered safety control structure model is proposed to determine the accident causal factors and accident chain of the targeted mission. Meanwhile, oriented to the long-term storage complex and volatile environment, a human performance and risk evaluation system is built to realize the effective evaluation of human factor error rate under the man-machine-environment coupling condition. Then, a safety dynamic feedback evaluation method integrating STAMP and CREAM is proposed to obtain the accident rates of the missile mission. Finally, a case study of the missile test mission is carried out, and 6 typical accident scenarios are studied. The results show that the overall accident rate accuracy is improved by 70.08%, which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Keywords: Long-term storage; Man-machine-environment coupling; Dynamic evaluation; Accurate quantification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023005926

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109678

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