Scenario mapping for critical infrastructure failure under typhoon rainfall: A dependency and causality approach

Yang Shen, Zhen Yang, Li Guo, Xiaozhe Zhao and Yao Duan

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 249, issue C

Abstract: The critical infrastructure system exhibits a high degree of instability because of the frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters. This study proposes a method for exploring the cascading failures of critical infrastructure systems under such impacts, based on dependency relationships for importance analysis and probability assessment. With this method, a cascading failure scenario graph of critical infrastructure is established and empirical research is conducted using typhoon rainfall events as a case study. The main contributions of this study are summarized as follows: it proposes a method for the causal identification of the interrelationships among critical infrastructures; it sorts and evaluates the importance and cascading failure probability of critical infrastructure by using the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) and Rank-order Centroid method (ROC); and it generates scenario graphs of critical infrastructure cascading failures to visualize event states, environmental characteristics, and evolutionary paths. This study provides a new method and tool for disaster risk management of complex systems involved in critical infrastructure.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure; Causal identification; Scenario graph; Cascading failure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:249:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002667

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110193

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