Optimal two-stage abort policy considering performance-based missions

Jianhui Chen, Hongda Gao and Chen Fang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 257, issue PA

Abstract: Safety-critical systems are tasked with executing various missions in challenging environments. This paper proposes two-stage mission abort strategies tailored for performance-based missions, which are increasingly implemented across various sectors to assess success through clearly defined key performance indicators. These strategies incorporate both penalties for unmet mission requirements and rewards for exceeding established standards. When system survivability is endangered, the critical decision to abort missions and initiate rescue procedures must be made swiftly. We introduce a dynamic two-stage performance-based mission abort policy that integrates real-time condition monitoring and mission progress to balance the mission progress with risk mitigation. It encompasses a pre-minimum requirement stage for initial degradation assessments and a post-minimum requirement stage for continuous performance evaluation. Two-stage mission abort decisions are developed to balance the cost of failure to meet the minimum mission requirement and system failure and reward of exceeding the minimum requirement. Our analysis provides insight into mission completion probability, system survivability, and expected total costs under various policies. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed policy, we include detailed case studies of unmanned aerial vehicle, illustrating the policy’s adaptability across various operational contexts and its potential to significantly enhance safety and reliability.

Keywords: Mission abort decision; System survivability; Mission reliability; Performance-based mission; Gamma process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:257:y:2025:i:pa:s0951832025000067

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.110803

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