Failure prediction of overhead transmission lines incorporating time series prediction model for wind-ice loads

Xiangrui Meng, Li Tian, Juncai Liu and Qingtong Jin

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 259, issue C

Abstract: The existing research on transmission line icing usually considers the climatic conditions of the past period in the form of return period. However, in the era of climate change, it is impossible to fully predict the disaster intensity of future structures with historical data. Therefore, this paper proposes an framework for regional overhead transmission lines (OTLs) under wind-ice. Firstly, the meteorological station data of the OTL area are collected, and the key meteorological parameters of the current and future periods are calculated based on the statistical data and time series prediction model. Subsequently, based on the proposed calculation method of wind-ice combined action, the disaster intensity and OTL response in each historical period are studied. Finally, the fragility of OTL under the combined action of wind and ice is calculated, and the failure probability of OTL under different historical periods is calculated by combining the distribution of wind and ice disasters with the fragility of OTL. The results show that climate change seriously affects the failure probability of the structure, resulting in greater uncertainty in the OTL life cycle, and a supplementary design strategy for coping with climate change is recommended.

Keywords: Overhead transmission line; Structural failure probability analysis; Ice storm; Wind loads (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:259:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025001309

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.110927

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