Microgrid-level reliability assessment of mid-term electricity provision under intermittency of renewable distributed generation: A probabilistic conditional value at risk modeling

Seyed-Sadra Jodeiri-Seyedian and Mohammad Veysi

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 261, issue C

Abstract: In critical and sensitive load sites like medical and educational microgrids (MGs), the reliability index holds paramount importance, yet it has not received necessary attention. This paper introduces a scheduling strategy focused on maximizing the MG's annual reliability index. Here, a power-based failure rate (PFR) concept to enhance the reliability assessment of MGs, establishing a relationship between component failure rates and production, is proposed. Moreover, MGs face various uncertainties, including renewable energy resources’ generation and consumption patterns. These uncertainties are modeled using a scenario-based stochastic approach with well-known probability density functions. Furthermore, the potential risks of the worst-case scenario present a significant obstacle to the reliability-focused improvement process; to safeguard the suggested framework from undesirable conditions, a conditional value at risk (CVaR)-based framework is developed. This framework assists the MG operator (MGO) in managing the analyzed system during worst-case scenarios. Ultimately, the proposed model encountered a non-convex challenge due to the exponential nature of reliability and PFR curves, which transformed into a mixed integer linear programming model utilizing piecewise linearization and the MacCormack relaxation techniques. Simulation findings indicate that under full-risk conditions, the annual reliability index of MGs slightly decreases due to the MGO's conservative policies.

Keywords: reliability assessment; convex programming; MacCormack relaxation; conditional value at risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:261:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025002881

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111087

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