Modeling multivariate degradation data with dynamic covariates under a Bayesian framework

Zhengzhi Lin, Xiao Liu, Yisha Xiang and Yili Hong

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 261, issue C

Abstract: Degradation data are essential for determining the reliability of high-end products and systems, especially when covering multiple degradation characteristics (DCs). Modern degradation studies not only measure these characteristics but also record dynamic system usage and environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet exposures, referred to as the dynamic covariates. Most current research either focuses on a single DC with dynamic covariates or multiple DCs with fixed covariates. This paper presents a Bayesian framework to analyze data with multiple DCs, which incorporates dynamic covariates. We develop a Bayesian framework for mixed effect nonlinear general path models to describe the degradation path and use Bayesian shape-constrained P-splines to model the effects of dynamic covariates. We also detail algorithms for estimating the failure time distribution induced by our degradation model, validate the developed methods through simulation, and illustrate their use in predicting the lifespan of organic coatings in dynamic environments.

Keywords: Bayesian framework; Bayesian P-splines; Bayesian shape constraints; Multiple degradation characteristics; General path models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025003163
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:261:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025003163

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111115

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().