Enabling autonomous navigation: adaptive multi-source risk quantification in maritime transportation

Lichao Yang, Jingxian Liu, Qin Zhou, Zhao Liu, Yang Chen, Yukuan Wang and Yang Liu

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 261, issue C

Abstract: Current studies on maritime navigation risks often overlook interactions between ships, dynamic surroundings, and static environmental factors, limiting insights into navigation safety in complex scenarios. This research presents an innovative methodology to quantify and integrate multi-source heterogeneous navigation risks, enabling a comprehensive assessment of overall risk levels. The framework comprises four components. First, a spatiotemporal risk monitoring domain model, developed using historical AIS data, incorporates risk monitoring and forbidden domains, enabling precise localisation and timing of risk evaluation. Second, heterogeneous navigation risk evaluation functions, addressing dynamic target and static environment risks, capture ships’ varying sensitivities to diverse risk sources. Third, risk quantification methods evaluate dynamic risks from temporal and spatial perspectives while categorising static risks into three types. Finally, an adaptive fusion method hierarchically aggregates multi-source risk data into a unified profile, reflecting navigators’ risk perception. Real-world AIS data validate the framework, constructing spatiotemporal risk models for three ship types and analysing navigation scenarios such as crossing, overtaking, and multi-ship encounters. Results demonstrate the framework's capability to enhance precision in navigation risk assessment, providing actionable insights and robust support for autonomous navigation and intelligent maritime systems. This methodology offers a promising tool for advancing safety in complex maritime environments.

Keywords: Intelligent transportation systems; AIS data; Heterogeneous navigation risks; Spatiotemporal risk modelling; Adaptive risk fusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025003199
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:261:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025003199

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111118

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().