EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Time-dependent system reliability analysis of a high concrete-faced rockfill dam by integrating multi-source monitoring information

Ming Peng, Longhou Gan, Qiming Zhong, Ge Yang, Gang Deng, Zijun Cao and Zhenming Shi

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 262, issue C

Abstract: This paper presents a time-dependent reliability analysis method for concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) by integrating multiple failure modes and multi-source monitoring data via Bayesian networks. Initially, two sub-Bayesian networks are constructed to fuse dam parameters, two related failure modes, and three types of monitoring data. Subsequently, the prior failure probabilities of the dam system for each period are calculated through the time-variant response relationships among network nodes. These response relationships introduce a time-variant term to quantify the effects of water level and creep. Finally, various types of monitoring data are utilized to update parameter distribution, resulting in the posterior failure probabilities. The proposed method is applied to 233-meter-high Shuibuya CFRD. The results indicate that Bayesian networks offer a more comprehensive and reliable assessment. Water level induces periodic variations in system reliability, while creep drives the long-term trend by increasing slabs' failure probabilities. The failure probabilities of dam system increase over the initial ten years and stabilize as creep converges. The slabs’ failure probabilities vary from location. Seepage failure probability is primarily dominated by the most critical slab. Utilizing multi-source monitoring data can reduce uncertainties, mitigate the interference of localized abnormal data, and identify potential failure locations. This approach supports enhanced dam safety management.

Keywords: Concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRDs); Multiple failure modes; Bayesian networks; Information fusion; Time-dependent reliability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025004521
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:262:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025004521

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111251

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2025-06-18
Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:262:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025004521