Time-to-failure based deterioration factors of water networks: Systematic review and prioritization

Beenish Bakhtawar, Tarek Zayed and Nehal Elshaboury

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 263, issue C

Abstract: Amidst global scarcity, preventing pipeline failures in water distribution systems is crucial for maintaining a clean supply while conserving water resources. Numerous studies have modelled water pipeline deterioration; however, existing literature does not correctly understand the failure time prediction for individual water pipelines. Existing time-to-failure prediction models rely on available data, failing to provide insight into factors affecting a pipeline's remaining age until a break or leak occurs. The study systematically reviews factors influencing time-to-failure, prioritizes them using a magnitude-based fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, and compares results with expert opinion using an in-person Delphi survey. The final pipe-related prioritized failure factors include pipe geometry, material type, operating pressure, pipe age, failure history, pipeline installation, internal pressure, earth and traffic loads. The prioritized environment-related factors include soil properties, water quality, extreme weather events, temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this prioritization can assist practitioners and researchers in selecting features for time-based deterioration modelling. Effective time-to-failure deterioration modelling of water pipelines can create a more sustainable water infrastructure management protocol, enhancing decision-making for repair and rehabilitation. Such a system can significantly reduce non-revenue water and mitigate the socio-environmental impacts of pipeline ageing and damage.

Keywords: Time-to-failure; Factors; Review; Water pipelines; Prioritization; Delphi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:263:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025004478

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111246

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