Modeling urban transportation safety resilience under extreme rainstorms: A catastrophe theory approach

Fei Ma, Yujie Zhang, Qing Liu, Yaru Guo, Zhijie Yang and Jiaju Zhang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2025, vol. 263, issue C

Abstract: Extreme rainstorm disasters severely affect urban transportation safety. To scientifically assess urban transportation safety resilience (UTSR11Urban transportation safety resilience) and its evolutionary process under extreme rainstorm disasters, this study proposes a novel assessment method by modeling the UTSR using the catastrophe theory approach. First, a safety framework for the urban transportation system is constructed, and catastrophe theory is applied to analyze catastrophic effects on the system. Second, factors affecting UTSR are identified, and their relationships are analyzed using a stock and flow model. Finally, the effectiveness of the UTSR dynamic simulation model is analyzed using the case study of an extreme rainstorm event in Xi'an, China. The results reveal that increasing the investment levels of government regulation effort (GRE22Government regulation effort), information synergy degree (ISD33Information synergy degree), and municipal drainage effectiveness (MDE44Municipal drainage effectiveness) leads to modeled increases in UTSR levels by 59.44%, 50.18%, and 16.79%, respectively. The results demonstrate that strengthening GRE and ISD significantly enhances UTSR, while MDE has a relatively minor impact. This study contributes a new theoretical perspective and practical modeling tool for capturing abrupt resilience transitions, offering detailed management strategies for enhancing UTSR when facing extreme rainstorms.

Keywords: Extreme rainstorm disasters; Catastrophe theory; Urban road transportation; Safety resilience; System dynamics; Emergency management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:263:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025005022

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111301

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