Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

Scott Ferson and W. Troy Tucker

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2006, vol. 91, issue 10, 1435-1442

Abstract: Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values.

Keywords: Probability bounds analysis; Interval analysis; Second-order probability; Sensitivity analysis; Convolution; Robust Bayes; Bayesian sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:10:p:1435-1442

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.052

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