A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM

Man Cheol Kim, Poong Hyun Seong and Erik Hollnagel

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2006, vol. 91, issue 2, 191-199

Abstract: The control mode is the core concept for the prediction of human performance in CREAM. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic method for determining the control mode which is a substitute for the existing deterministic method. The new method is based on a probabilistic model, a Bayesian network. This paper describes the mathematical procedure for developing the Bayesian network for determining the control mode. The Bayesian network developed in this paper is an extension of the existing deterministic method. Using the Bayesian network, we expect that we can get the best estimate of the control mode given the available data and information about the context. The mathematical background and procedure for developing equivalent Bayesian networks for given discrete functions provided in this paper can be applied to other discrete functions to develop probabilistic models.

Keywords: CREAM; COCOM; Control mode; Human reliability analysis; Bayesian network; Context (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:2:p:191-199

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2004.12.003

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