Construction of event-tree/fault-tree models from a Markov approach to dynamic system reliability

Paolo Bucci, Jason Kirschenbaum, L. Anthony Mangan, Tunc Aldemir, Curtis Smith and Ted Wood

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, vol. 93, issue 11, 1616-1627

Abstract: While the event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology is the most popular approach to probability risk assessment (PRA), concerns have been raised in the literature regarding its potential limitations in the reliability modeling of dynamic systems. Markov reliability models have the ability to capture the statistical dependencies between failure events that can arise in complex dynamic systems. A methodology is presented that combines Markov modeling with the cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) to construct dynamic ETs/FTs and addresses the concerns with the traditional ET/FT methodology. The approach is demonstrated using a simple water level control system. It is also shown how the generated ETs/FTs can be incorporated into an existing PRA so that only the (sub)systems requiring dynamic methods need to be analyzed using this approach while still leveraging the static model of the rest of the system.

Keywords: Markov; Dynamic reliability; PRA; Dynamic event tree; Dynamic fault tree (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:11:p:1616-1627

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.01.008

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