Informing risk-mitigation priorities using uncertainty measures derived from heterogeneous expert panels: A demonstration using foodborne pathogens

Sandra Hoffmann, Paul Fischbeck, Alan Krupnick and Michael McWilliams

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, vol. 93, issue 5, 687-698

Abstract: This article looks at a new approach to expert elicitation that combines basic elements of conventional expert elicitation protocols with formal survey methods and larger, heterogeneous expert panels. This approach is appropriate where the hazard-estimation task requires a wide range of expertise and professional experience. The ability to judge when to rely on alternative data sources often is critical for successful risk management. We show how a large, heterogeneous sample can support internal validation of not only the experts’ assessments but also prior information that is based on limited historical data.

Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:687-698

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.010

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