 Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution expertsJouni T. Tuomisto, Andrew Wilson, John S. Evans and Marko Tainio Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2008, vol. 93, issue 5, 732-744 Abstract: The authors have performed a structured expert judgement study of the population mortality effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The opinions of six European air pollution experts were elicited. The ability of each expert to probabilistically characterize uncertainty was evaluated using 12 calibration questions—relevant variables whose true values were unknown at the time of elicitation, but available at the time of analysis. The elicited opinions exhibited both uncertainty and disagreement. It emerged that there were significant differences in expert performance. Two combinations of the experts’ judgements were computed and evaluated—one in which each expert's views received equal weight; the other in which the expert's judgements were weighted by their performance on the calibration variables. When the performance of these combinations was evaluated the equal-weight combination exhibited acceptable performance, but was nonetheless inferior to the performance-based combination. Keywords: Fine particles; Expert elicitation; Mortality; Kuwaiti oil fires (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:732-744 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.002 Access Statistics for this article Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier |
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