Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model

Jianye Ching and Sou-Sen Leu

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, vol. 94, issue 12, 1962-1974

Abstract: This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management—deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system.

Keywords: Reliability; Civil infrastructure; Life-cycle analysis; Bayesian update; Inspection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:12:p:1962-1974

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.002

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