Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

Debón, A., Carrión, A., E. Cabrera and H. Solano

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2010, vol. 95, issue 1, 43-48

Abstract: The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes.

Keywords: Cox model; Accelerated lifetime models; Generalized linear models; ROC curve; Optimal operating point (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:1:p:43-48

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.004

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