Probability modelling of vessel collisions

Jakub Montewka, Tomasz Hinz, Pentti Kujala and Jerzy Matusiak

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2010, vol. 95, issue 5, 573-589

Abstract: Among engineers, risk is defined as a product of probability of the occurrence of an undesired event and the expected consequences in terms of human, economic, and environmental loss. These two components are equally important; therefore, the appropriate estimation of these values is a matter of great significance. This paper deals with one of these two components—the assessment of the probability of vessels colliding, presenting a new approach for the geometrical probability of collision estimation on the basis of maritime and aviation experience. The geometrical model that is being introduced in this paper takes into account registered vessel traffic data and generalised vessel dynamics and uses advanced statistical and optimisation methods (Monte Carlo and genetic algorithms). The results obtained from the model are compared with registered data for maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland and a good agreement is found.

Keywords: Marine traffic safety; Collision probability; Minimum distance to collision (MDTC); Ship motion model; Gulf of Finland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (39)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:5:p:573-589

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.01.009

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