Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

Martin Pilch, Timothy G. Trucano and Jon C. Helton

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011, vol. 96, issue 9, 965-975

Abstract: Key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions are described. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, the following topics are discussed: (i) the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, (ii) the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and (iii) the properties of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) that are best suited for effective application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides an extensive bibliography of useful papers for interested readers to deepen their understanding of the presented ideas.

Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty; Epistemic uncertainty; Margins; Performance assessment; QMU; Reliability; Risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:9:p:965-975

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.016

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