Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany

Julia Bredtmann

Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2022, vol. 96, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of local exposure to refugees on electoral outcomes in the 2016 state election in Germany. Based on quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees across municipalities and unique data on refugee populations and their type of accommodation, I find that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal government parties. The electoral effects, however, are rather small and solely driven by refugees living in centralized accommodation, while no such effects are found for refugees living in decentralized accommodation.

Keywords: Immigration; Refugees; Political economy; Voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F22 J15 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany (2022)
Working Paper: Immigration and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 Refugee Inflow to Germany (2022)
Working Paper: Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:regeco:v:96:y:2022:i:c:s0166046222000473

DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103807

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