Copula-based projections of wind power: Ireland as a case study

Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka I. Olbert, Salem Gharbia and Gregorio Iglesias

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2023, vol. 175, issue C

Abstract: Wind energy is a key element in the ongoing push to decarbonize the energy supply. The first step in the development of a wind farm at a specific site is to conduct feasibility studies including accurate long-term wind potential assessments and estimates of the annual energy production. However, as evidence of climate change becomes more apparent recently, concerns about the planning and utilization of wind resources in the face of these new conditions have increased. Accurate projections are needed to determine the frequency distribution of wind speeds in an area and, on this basis, estimate the energy production. The purpose of this study is to analyze the wind resource, to estimate its potential and to prepare zoning maps of wind energy production to determine the most suitable sites for wind farms in Ireland. For this purpose, wind data from ten Global Circulation Models and different climate-change scenarios were used during the historical and future period of 1981–2010 and 2021–2050, respectively. These data were evaluated in the study area and then a multi-criteria decision-making method was applied to choose the best representative climate models over the area. In order to post-process the outputs of the selected models, 17 statistical distributions and 26 Copula families were applied. Results showed that the average wind speed in the region during the historical period is expected to decrease in 2021–2050 by approximately 2–7% based on the climate scenarios. Additionally, wind power density maps were produced for the study area.

Keywords: Climate change; Copula method; Wind speed projections; Wind energy; Wind power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123000035
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rensus:v:175:y:2023:i:c:s1364032123000035

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600126/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113147

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews is currently edited by L. Kazmerski

More articles in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().