Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Noah Sandoval, Janet L. Reyna and Amy E. Landis

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2023, vol. 186, issue C

Abstract: Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. To address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios.

Keywords: Energy modeling; Scenario development; Comparative framework; Annual energy outlook; World energy outlook; Scout model; LA100 study; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Asia-Pacific integrated model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113632

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