Renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels versus fossil fuels for trucking, shipping and aviation: A holistic cost model

Jonas Martin, Anne Neumann and Anders Ødegård

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2023, vol. 186, issue C

Abstract: Potential carbon neutrality of the global trucking, shipping and aviation sectors by 2050 could be achieved by substituting fossil fuels with renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels. To investigate the economic impact of fuel substitution over time, a holistic cost model is developed and applied to three case studies in Norway, an early adopter of carbon-neutral freight transport. The model covers the value chains from local electricity and fuel production (hydrogen, ammonia, Fischer–Tropsch e-fuel) to fuel consumption for long-haul trucking, short-sea shipping and mid-haul aviation. The estimates are internally consistent and allow cross-mode and cross-fuel comparisons that set this work apart from previous studies more narrowly focused on a given transport mode or fuel. The model contains 150 techno-economic parameters to identify which components along the value chains drive levelized costs. This paper finds a cost reduction potential for renewable fuels of 41% to 68% until 2050, but carbon-neutral transport will suffer asymmetric cost disadvantages. Fuel substitution is most expensive in short-sea shipping, followed by mid-haul aviation and long-haul trucking. Cost developments of electricity, direct air capture of carbon, vehicle expenses, and fuel-related payload losses are significant drivers.

Keywords: Hydrogen; Ammonia; E-fuel; Trucking; Shipping; Aviation; Levelized cost; Total cost of ownership; 2050 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212300494X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rensus:v:186:y:2023:i:c:s136403212300494x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600126/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113637

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews is currently edited by L. Kazmerski

More articles in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().