Resilience of the higher education sector to future climates: A systematic review of predicted building energy performance and modelling approaches

Eleni Davidson, Yair Schwartz, Joe Williams and Dejan Mumovic

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2024, vol. 191, issue C

Abstract: A continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions is estimated to see average temperatures rise by 2.7 °C before 2100. This warming effect presents risks to global infrastructure and built assets that should be identified to minimise negative consequences on inhabitants. For higher education estates, a key challenge is to maintain high indoor environmental quality standards whilst mitigating increased cooling loads under future climates. Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that existing passive cooling mechanisms may be insufficient to tolerate predicted increases in summertime temperatures, even in cooler UK climates. Across typologies, peak electricity demand for mechanically cooled higher education buildings was estimated to increase the most for halls of residences (4–27 %) and the least for laboratory buildings (0–5%) by 2080. Under a high emission scenario, the increase in total annual energy consumption by 2050 varies widely across studies (+5–33 %), although almost all cases predict a greater increase in cooling energy consumption than decrease in heating energy consumption. Probabilistic climate projections are the predominant source of uncertainty for predictions of energy demand, with the difference between low and high emission scenarios contributing to 34–44 % of variability in predicted annual cooling energy consumption in 2050. Further research is warranted to identify the most likely indicators of future building performance across a range of university building typologies. This work provides recommendations on expanding the evidence basis through development of standardised climate change impact assessments.

Keywords: Climate change resilience; Thermal performance; Energy performance; Building simulation; Climate change risk; Climate change impact; Higher education (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123008985
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rensus:v:191:y:2024:i:c:s1364032123008985

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600126/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.114040

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews is currently edited by L. Kazmerski

More articles in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().