Expanding scenario diversity in prospective LCA: Coupling the TIAM-UCL integrated assessment model with Premise and ecoinvent

Joris Šimaitis, Isabela Butnar, Romain Sacchi, Rick Lupton, Christopher Vagg and Stephen Allen

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2025, vol. 211, issue C

Abstract: Prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) using scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) can explore future environmental impacts. However, results are sensitive to the IAM used and only scenarios from two IAMs – REMIND and IMAGE – have been soft-coupled with pLCA using Premise. Here, we establish a new linkage to a third IAM - TIAM-UCL - which diversifies available IAM scenarios and strengthens potential conclusions from pLCA. Over 200 variables across 16 global regions were linked to over 300 LCA processes, representing future technological changes across seven major sectors, including electricity, fuels, and steel. We analyse the future life-cycle impacts of the global electricity mix per kWh delivered to low-voltage consumers using TIAM-UCL scenarios, ecoinvent v3.9.1, and the EF 3.1 impact assessment method. In 1.5–2.0 °C futures, projected reductions in climate change impact from fossil-fuel phase-out have substantial co-benefits in ten categories, such as acidification reducing over 90 % by 2050. Trade-offs are found in five categories, such as critical material shortages. Comparing pLCA results based on all three IAM models showed consistent reductions in climate change impact to meet 1.5–2.0 °C futures. However, differences in other impact category results arose due to variations in low-carbon technologies deployed, such as IMAGE showing smaller environmental co-benefits due to preferences for CCS-fitted fossil generation, while REMIND had increased land use from greater solar uptake. Therefore, it is essential to consider the influence of IAM choice when interpreting pLCA outcomes. The addition of TIAM-UCL, now available in Premise, will enable more robust modelling of prospective environmental impacts.

Keywords: Life cycle assessment (LCA); Prospective LCA; Integrated assessment model; Climate change mitigation; Electricity decarbonisation; Low-carbon transitions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032124010244
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rensus:v:211:y:2025:i:c:s1364032124010244

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600126/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.115298

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews is currently edited by L. Kazmerski

More articles in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().