Optimizing a nationwide supply chain for winter oilseeds in sustainable aviation fuel production: Pennycress, camelina, and carinata

Juliana Pin, Daniela S. Jones, Damon Hartley, Pralhad H. Burli, Matthew Langholtz, Chad Hellwinckel and David Thompson

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2025, vol. 215, issue C

Abstract: The U.S. aims to produce approximately 133 billion liters of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2050 to address greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector and reduce reliance on petroleum-derived fuels. Meeting this target requires significant scaling of feedstock production and supply chain infrastructure. This research evaluates the national viability of winter oilseeds — pennycress, camelina, and carinata — as feedstocks as time progresses and at different demand levels. Leveraging crop production forecasts and a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model, this analysis determined strategic locations for processing facilities and biorefineries to minimize costs. Findings reveal that if all oilseed-producing counties participate, these crops could generate 4.24 billion liters of SAF by 2048 — only 3% of the 2050 target — at a cost of $0.68/liter of bio-oil at the biorefinery gate. Including meal credit in the model can reduce overall costs by up to 70%. Additional scenarios were examined for specific SAF demand levels: 1.32, 2.65, and 3.97 billion liters annually, representing 1%, 2%, and 3% of the 2050 target, respectively. Results estimated bio-oil unit costs ranging from $0.48-$0.64 per liter (cost excludes bio-oil to SAF conversion cost and co-product credits from this conversion). The analysis is limited by fixed processing capacities, reliance on truck-based deliveries of winter oilseeds, and the exclusion of downstream logistics beyond the biorefinery gate. Despite these constraints, this study contributes to SAF research by providing a scalable optimization framework and highlighting the critical need for enhanced infrastructure and diversified feedstocks to achieve U.S. SAF production targets efficiently.

Keywords: Optimization; Sustainable aviation fuel; Supply chain; Energy crops; Pennycress; Camelina (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115555

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