Profitability of wind energy investments in China using a Monte Carlo approach for the treatment of uncertainties

George Caralis, Danae Diakoulaki, Peijin Yang, Zhiqiu Gao, Arthouros Zervos and Kostas Rados

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, vol. 40, issue C, 224-236

Abstract: China is the global leader in terms of installed wind capacity. Further, wind energy development is expected for the next years and decades to meet the continuously increasing electricity demand and the need of using clean domestic energy. Since 2009 China is divided into four geographical regions, each assigned with a different benchmark on-grid tariff. Moreover the existing infrastructures are not equally developed throughout the country, making investment decisions more complicated and risky. The scope of this paper is to apply an innovative methodology and evaluate the attractiveness of each region for wind energy development, by taking into consideration all relevant investment risks, such as wind potential, wind curtailment, access to the grid and macroeconomic parameters. To this purpose a Monte Carlo simulation approach, integrated into a typical financial model, is implemented in each of the four regions, performing many hundreds of iterations, each characterized by a randomly selected set of the examined uncertain parameters. This approach intends to provide information to private investors doing a first exploratory research in the huge country׳s area in order to decide whether and where to invest, as well as to policy makers to help them assess critical policy parameters and investigate different scenarios of wind energy development. The evaluation of the current framework for wind energy development in China verifies that the existing system of feed-in tariffs in China is very effective for the balanced deployment of wind energy in the whole country. However, it is shown that the risk of curtailment and grid accessibility may significantly reduce the potential profitability of wind energy investments in all four regions. Priority for development of infrastructures should be given in isolated northern windy areas with high-accumulation of wind farms.

Keywords: Wind energy; Investments; Profitability; Monte Carlo; Risk analysis; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.189

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