 The economic effects of tensions in energy transportationResearch in Transportation Economics, 2025, vol. 112, issue C Abstract: This paper tackles the urgent issue of how tensions in energy transportation impact oil markets and the global economy. The study introduces an energy transportation uncertainty index, developed from over 50 global newspapers, to monitor fluctuations in uncertainty associated with significant events such as the Tanker War, major US sanctions, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, the Nord Stream sabotage, the Colonial pipeline cyberattack, and various Gulf incidents. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the analysis shows that these fluctuations in transportation uncertainty cause increases in real oil prices due to supply chain challenges. While oil production dips initially due to perceived risks, it quickly rebounds, though inventories are heavily used. These shocks also heighten geopolitical tensions and reduce global industrial output. Keywords: Supply chain disruptions; Energy transportation uncertainty; Geopolitical risks; Oil markets; Uncertainty shocks; SVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:retrec:v:112:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000812 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101598 Access Statistics for this article Research in Transportation Economics is currently edited by M. Dresner More articles in Research in Transportation Economics from Elsevier |
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