Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

Marc Gaudry and Matthieu de Lapparent

Research in Transportation Economics, 2013, vol. 37, issue 1, 38-56

Abstract: The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.

Keywords: Road victims by category; Natural road accident rate; Vision Zero; Conditional expected road safety performance; Expected maximum insecurity (EMI); Median voter; Risk compensation; Uncoupling transport and the economy; Transport and communications as complements; Speed/traffic density/vehicle occupation rate conjecture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.02.003

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