Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out-of-sample test

Jiali Fang, Ben Jacobsen and Yafeng Qin ()

Review of Financial Economics, 2014, vol. 23, issue 1, 30-45

Abstract: In a true out-of-sample test based on fresh data we find no evidence that several well-known technical trading strategies predict stock markets over the period of 1987 to 2011. Our test safeguards against sample selection bias, data mining, hindsight bias, and other usual biases that may affect results in our field. We use the exact same technical trading rules that Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) showed to work best in their historical sample. Further analysis shows that this poor out-of-sample performance most likely is not due to the market becoming more efficient – instantaneously or gradually over time – but probably a result of bias.

Keywords: Technical analysis; Market efficiency; Out-of-sample tests; Return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058330013000396
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:revfin:v:23:y:2014:i:1:p:30-45

DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2013.05.004

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Financial Economics is currently edited by T. K. Mukherjee and G. Whitney

More articles in Review of Financial Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().