Contagion and bond pricing: The case of the ASEAN region
Stéphane Goutte () and
Research in International Business and Finance, 2019, vol. 47, issue C, 371-385
In this paper, we obtain explicit numerical formulas to price the defaultable bonds prices of firms. The possible default event of the firms happen in random time and not necessary in uniform time spread. For this purpose, we develop a Markov regime-switching Copula model that allows us to well-capture the economic behavior in some ASEAN region countries. The first regime represents the evidence that is used to support the standard economy. The second regime represents the crisis state. Based on various specifications, we obtain an explicit formula to evaluate the conditional Laplace transform of a regime switching Cox Ingersoll Ross model using the semi-affine property of this model. Our numerical results show strong evidence for increasing volatility parameter in crisis state, suggesting more possibility of contagion. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in terms of volatility of default across countries are reported. Indonesia and Malaysia exhibit particularly higher volatility than other markets, especially in the crisis state.
Keywords: Defaultable bond; Regime switching; ASEAN region; Credit rating; Markov copula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C58 F31 F47 G01 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Contagion and bond pricing: The case of the ASEAN region (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:371-385
Access Statistics for this article
Research in International Business and Finance is currently edited by T. Lagoarde Segot
More articles in Research in International Business and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().