Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets
Nabil El Meslmani and
Lorne Switzer ()
Research in International Business and Finance, 2020, vol. 53, issue C
This study examines the pricing efficiency for the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin using spot prices and all CBOE and CME futures contracts traded from January 2018 to March 2019. We find that the futures basis provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price and in the risk premium. However, the basis of Bitcoin is a biased predictor of the future spot price changes. Cointegration tests also demonstrate that futures prices are biased predictors of spot prices. Deviations from no-arbitrage between spot and futures markets are persistent and widen significantly with Bitcoin thefts (hacks, frauds) as well as alternative cryptocurrency issuances.
Keywords: Bitcoin; cryptocurrency; speculation; efficient markets; futures arbitrage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E42 G11 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:53:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919309808
Access Statistics for this article
Research in International Business and Finance is currently edited by T. Lagoarde Segot
More articles in Research in International Business and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nithya Sathishkumar ().