 Asset pricing during pandemic lockdownYuta Saito and Jun Sakamoto Research in International Business and Finance, 2021, vol. 58, issue C Abstract: This paper examines the implications of lockdown policies during early stages of pandemics for asset prices. We build a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model with microeconomic foundations, which allows us to obtain qualitative results with economic implications. In our model, lockdown policies reduce (i) labour income by decreasing working hours and (ii) precautionary savings by decreasing susceptible agents’ probability of getting infected in the future. We qualitatively show that strengthening lockdown measures negatively impacts asset prices at the time of implementation. Our empirical analysis using data from advanced countries supports this finding. Depending on parameter values, our numerical analysis displays a V-shaped recovery of asset prices and an L-shaped recession of consumption. The rapid recovery of asset prices occurs only if the lockdown policies are insufficiently stringent to reduce the number of new periodic cases. This finding implies the possibility that lenient lockdowns have contributed to rapid stock market recovery at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Keywords: Asset pricing; Lockdown; SIR model; CCAPM (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000702 DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101449 Access Statistics for this article Research in International Business and Finance is currently edited by T. Lagoarde Segot More articles in Research in International Business and Finance from Elsevier |
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