Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy

Francesco Grigoli (), Alexander Herman, Andrew Swiston and C. Di Bella ()

Russian Journal of Economics, 2015, vol. 1, issue 4, 329-358

Abstract: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

Keywords: output gap; monetary policy; policy rule; data revisions; real-time; uncertainty; Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Mexico; Peru; inflation target; business cycle. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E32 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Working Paper: Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:329-358

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001

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