Easy come, easy go: Short-term land-use dynamics vis à vis regional economic downturns

Alessia D'Agata, Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo, Pavel Cudlín and Luca Salvati

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2023, vol. 88, issue C

Abstract: The present study postulates distinctive land-use dynamics along the economic cycle, and tests against diverging trends over time of urban and non-urban land-uses with characteristic economic potential. Short-term land-use changes over seven time windows encompassing the last three decades (1992–2020) were investigated in metropolitan Athens (Greece), a mono-centric region experiencing complex economic downturns. Based on diachronic land-use maps with homogeneous spatial resolution and nomenclature derived from ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI), a change detection analysis was run considering mean patch size, distance from downtown, and specific entropy-based metrics of landscape diversification (Shannon-Wiener H’ diversity index and Pielou J evenness index). Results of a canonical correlation analysis document differential intensity and spatial direction of change during expansions and recessions associated with distinctive socio-demographic profiles. Metropolitan growth followed a radio-centric (land-saving) model during economic expansions with intense urbanization of fringe land. A more dispersed settlement model – reflecting urban sprawl – was associated with economic stagnations, involving land at progressively distant locations from downtown. Landscape diversification was higher under stagnations and lower during expansions.

Keywords: Metropolitan cycle; Sprawl; Indicators; Partial least square regression; Mediterranean Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123001039

DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101603

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