Identification of the cholera diffusion process in Ibadan, 1971

H. O. Adesina

Social Science & Medicine, 1984, vol. 18, issue 5, 429-440

Abstract: The paper tries to examine and identify which spatial diffusion process was responsible for generating the pattern of cholera diffusion (an epidemic spread which was apparently wave-like) within Ibadan City in 1971. In this paper one of Moran's statistics, the BW join-count measure of spatial autocorrelation is employed. Five different plannar graphs are used in the study. The results show that contagion was apparent on the various models of spatial processes employed and on their different combinations. But it is the radial contact diffusion which was discovered to be most important in the spread of the epidemic. But even, though such a radial contact diffusion process was discovered to be the most important, during the advance and peak phases of the epidemic wave; as the epidemic intensity rose to a spread phase, a mixture of the various models became a best contributor to the contagion.

Date: 1984
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